
June 6-12, 2008
OSI
The OSI Turkmenistan News Brief features a digest of the week's news from a spectrum of sources, with an analysis of recent developments. It is distributed free of charge every Friday in English and Russian. Subscribe or unsubscribe to the Turkmenistan News Brief using the email entry box located on the left of this page.
Read this week's analysis directly below, or download the complete issue as a pdf in English or Russian.
Analysis
Russia reasserted itself in the ongoing competition for Turkmen energy resources this week. At an informal CIS summit over the weekend in St. Petersburg, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov met first with Russian President Medvedev in a visible nod to Turkmenistan's leading trade partner. The Russian leader agreed to come to Ashgabat July 4-5, and expressed confidence that an agreement would be reached by then on the market price for Turkmenistan's gas exports to Russia in 2009.
President Berdymukhamedov's willingness to meet with a wide variety of suitors, and the all-importance of his personal clearance, means that the Turkmen government's diplomacy is a kind of blank slate upon which to write foreign aspirations. While the West continues to hope that Turkmenistan will cooperate with alternative plans for energy supply, at their meeting the Russian and Turkmen presidents discussed the construction of a new Caspian-coast gas pipeline and the modernization of the existing Central Asia-Center gas pipeline, both Russian-dominated projects. Turkmenistan didn't move any further toward full-fledged membership in the CIS, but President Berdymukhamedov said more active participation was in order, and proposed organizing a CIS agro-industrial exhibition, given concerns about world food security.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, who last week failed to get a meeting with President Berdymukhamedov, spoke critically at an energy conference in France this week about the West's rush to court Caspian leaders, which he said would only drive prices up. In a draft version of his press release leaked to Dow Jones, Miller blasted Turkmenistan for not really having the hydrocarbon reserves to meet all its customers' needs, a charge he refrained from making publicly. Meanwhile, unfazed, following an international gas and oil exhibit in Ashgabat that attracted 50 companies from 23 countries, the Turkmen leader met with Gazprom's rival, Itera, and also the German company Siemens, urging them to become involved in joint gas and oil exploration projects in Turkmenistan. His cooperation with the U.S. also remains steady, as he received John Deere executives this week and will have his Defense Minister meet with top U.S. naval commanders to discuss regional security next week.
After his trip to Central Asia last week, the Finnish Chair-in-Office of the OSCE spoke enthusiastically about possibly being allowed to monitor parliamentary elections in Turkmenistan in December. The OSCE usually does not send full-fledged monitoring teams when pre-conditions such as access to the election process by alternative political groups are not met. There are so far no indications that Turkmenistan will allow parties other than the ruling party to compete.
Turkmenistan inched forward in opening up its citizens' access to the Internet this month, with the state-run fixed-line Internet provider beginning some home installations and Russia's MTS starting wireless coverage. Yet with obvious government control of controversial websites, slow connections, and steep costs beyond the reach of most Turkmens, the circle of users is not likely to widen much beyond the government officials and foreigners permitted in the past. The British Embassy opened up an English-language training center in Ashgabat, in one of many programs designed to help Turkmenistan overcome its years of isolation.
Another statue and some bas-relief portraits of past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov were dismantled, prompting some hope for a further departure from the cult of personality. Yet some observers have pointed out that the rush to complete certain high-profile buildings in Ashgabat now may be geared to the celebration of President Berdymukhamedov's birthday on June 30, indicating that the rituals of power may remain unchanged.
Digest
1. International Relations
a. Russian, Turkmen Presidents Meet to Discuss Energy Agreements
b. Russia's Medvedev to Visit Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan Early July
c. Russia, Turkmenistan Likely to Complete Gas Price Talks by July
d. Turkmen President Participates in Informal CIS Summit in St. Petersburg
e. President Berdymukhamedov Meets Ukrainian President Yushchenko f. U.S. Naval Forces Commanders Review Regional Security in Turkmenistan
g. OSCE May Monitor Turkmen Parliamentary Elections: Chair-in-Office
h. British Embassy in Ashgabat Opens English-Language Training Center
2. Domestic Developments
a. Turkmenistan Allows Home Internet Hook-ups
b. Russia's MTS Offers Wireless Internet in Turkmenistan
c. Turkmenbashi Monuments Continue to be Dismantled in Ashgabat
d. Fashionable or Not, Turkmen Women Still Face Dress Code: RFE/RL Report
3. Economic News
a. Gazprom CEO Says Western Courtship of Caspian Only Drives Up Energy Prices
b. Turkmen Leader Meets Russian, U.S. Business People
c. President Berdymukhamedov Receives Siemens Executives
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