The OSI Turkmenistan News Brief features a digest of the week's news from a spectrum of sources, with an analysis of recent developments. It is distributed free of charge every Friday in English and Russian. Subscribe or unsubscribe to the Turkmenistan News Brief using the email entry box located on the left of this page.

Read this week's analysis directly below, or download the complete issue as a pdf in English or Russian.

Analysis

On July 4-5, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was received in Ashgabat with pomp and circumstance as well as endless declarations of friendship from his counterpart, Turkmen President Berdymukhamedov, based on shared culture and geographical location, as well as mutual strategic interests. Yet the Russian leader left without an agreement on a market rate for Turkmen gas in 2009. Despite extensive meetings with Gazprom officials in recent months, President Berdymukhamedov has held out on a price and will likely continue to do so until he gets a better offer, meeting demonstratively with a variety of other existing and potential partners such as South Korea. The Turkmen president met with the South Korean economic minister this week and confirmed a bilateral economic commission as well as a scheduled meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung Bak during the Chinese Olympics and a visit to Seoul in the fall.

Russia seemed confident that it could afford to wait. While Berdymukhamedov makes smaller agreements such as the pledge of 10 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU in 2009, or offers of three offshore gas fields to prospect to South Korea, he is mindful that Russia is his main bilateral and regional partner and works assiduously to maintain all facets of the relationship. President Medvedev circumscribed Turkmenistan's bargaining position with the acceleration of the construction of the tripartite Caspian pipeline with Kazakhstan and mention of the commitment to the existing 25-year-agreement with Turkmenistan with promises to order even more gas in the future. This week during President Medvedev's trip, Turkmenneft and Tatneft of Tatarstan signed an agreement for future working visits; Tatarstan is the Russian region President Berdymukhamedov visited last week and with which Ashgabat has developed close working ties, using its drilling equipment for hydrocarbon exploration.

While of lesser significance, agreements on culture, education, information security and cooperation continue to bind Turkmenistan closest of all to Russia. Both Western and Russian analysts agree that President Medvedev is continuing his predecessors' line and consolidating Russia's hold over energy routes in Central Asia, despite setbacks. Russian leaders appear confident that they will eventually get an acceptable price arrangement with Turkmenistan and dissuade Turkmenistan from joining the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, as Russian presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko commented, "after the gradual transition to world prices, the issue of the reorientation of these flows to other countries will be removed from the agenda."  Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany met with President Berdymukhamedov on July 9 to discuss Nabucco and Hungary's interest in purchasing Turkmen gas. Ashgabat itself has made no definitive announcement about its commitment to Nabucco.

Following condemnation of a round-up of journalists before a sensitive EU-Turkmenistan human rights dialogue last week, Ashgabat unexpectedly reversed course and released RFE/RL commentator Sazak Durdymuradov from a psychiatric hospital, notorious for holding critics of the Turkmen regime. The U.S., which had publicly criticized the arrest last week, welcomed the release and urged Turkmenistan to comply with international human rights. However, no word was available about the status of other jailed civil society activists and political opposition figures.

Educational reforms continue apace, with some 2,200 students now slated to study abroad next year in Russia, China, Malaysia and Turkey. At least 500 are on assignment from government ministries, and all are encouraged to study subjects of direct benefit to the Turkmen state, mainly in the oil and gas, textile and finance sectors as well as in international relations. While Internet access remains restricted for ordinary citizens, the Turkmen state is utilizing new electronic data-collection technology with the introduction of a biometrics passport, enabling greater control of the movement of Turkmen residents.

Digest

Many of the primary news and information sources that inform the above analysis are noted (with weblinks) in Part 2 of the Turkmenistan News Brief, available for download below. This week's digest includes the following:

 1.     International Relations                                                               
a.  Russian President Medvedev Meets with Turkmen President Berdymukhamedov
b. Russia Consolidates Grip Over Central Asian Energy
c. Turkmenistan Not to Bypass Russia on Oil and Gas Exports:  Russian Analyst
d. President Berdymukhamedov Receives Hungarian Prime Minister
e. President Berdymukhamedov Attends 10th Anniversary Celebration in Astana
f. U.S. Embassy in Ashgabat Welcomes Release of RFE/RL Commentator
g.OSCE Centre Training in Turkmenistan on Micro-irrigation Systems

2.    Domestic Developments                                                     
a. RFE/RL Turkmen Contributor Released Home From Detention
b. More Turkmen Students Allowed to Study At Home and Abroad
c. Turkmenistan Introduces Biometric Passports
d. Turkmen Chewing Tobacco Users Face Fines Up to $17,000 Dollars

3.  Economic News  
a. South Korea To Develop Hydrocarbon Fields on Turkmen Shelf of Caspian Sea
b. Turkmenneft and Tatneft to Exchange Working Visits