The OSI Turkmenistan News Brief features a digest of the week's news from a spectrum of sources, with an analysis of recent developments. It is distributed free of charge every Friday in English and Russian. Subscribe or unsubscribe to the Turkmenistan News Brief using the email entry box located on the left of this page.

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Analysis

Turkmenistan is increasingly a battleground for competing powers seeking both energy security and regional stability. While Russia remains Turkmenistan's dominant geopolitical partner, this week's news revealed some gains by Ashgabat's Western suitors.

Der Spiegel reported this week that NATO supply planes are now landing at Turkmen military air bases on their way to Afghanistan, based on research from the Bonn-based Eurasian Transition Group (ETG).

The arrangement evidently grew out of talks in April at the NATO summit in Bucharest, where Russia and the states of Central Asia discussed allowing non-lethal supplies for the Afghan security effort to be sent via their countries. Two senior Caspian energy envoys from the U.S. government also visited this week.

Meanwhile, Aleksei Miller, CEO of Russia's Gazprom, was not received by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, an incident characterized as a "diplomatic failure" by Vremya novostei and other Russian media. The move was consistent with the Turkmen leader's apparent strategy of keeping prospective buyers off-balance to get the best price. Miller met Vice Prime Minister Tachberdy Tagyev instead, but no changes were announced to the 2007 agreement to bring the price Gazprom paid for Turkmen gas even with market rates in 2009. Miller had just completed a trip to Azerbaijan, where he had offered Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev a market rate for Azeri gas, and is still awaiting a response.

The intense economic competition in the Caspian basin may relegate Turkmenistan's human rights performance to a secondary priority for the West. ETG's Michael Laubsch said the EU, at least, was focusing on energy and other economic considerations. "From the political aspect, I know that the European Union is now not focusing mainly on democratic reforms and transitions regarding human rights issues in Turkmenistan," he said.

Underscoring the stakes, Amnesty International's annual report this week said that "no fundamental improvement in human rights" had been made in Turkmenistan under the new president. Many political prisoners remain, under poor conditions, while the few cases that have been resolved appear to be symbolic bows to pressure from the U.S., Europe, and Russia. New presidential bodies created to report on human rights and resolve complaints appear to be window-dressing at best or tools for surveillance at worst.

There are signs, too, that economic reforms are falling hard on Turkmen citizens, many of whom are already living in poverty. The Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights reported shortages of bread and flour, due in part to a new exchange rate that has caused a volatile currency market. The cost of public transport increased by a factor of 20 on June 3, and airline tickets are now five times more expensive.

The OSCE, which unlike NATO includes Russia as a participating state, has continued to favor a constructive approach in its dealings with Turkmenistan. On June 5, the OSCE's Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, met with President Berdymukhamedov. Amb. Stubb talked optimistically of working with Turkmenistan to help reform its legislation and promote democracy and human rights, while also cooperating on security, particularly regarding the border with Afghanistan. Marking an earlier visit by Knut Vollebaek, the OSCE's high commissioner on national minorities, News Briefing Central Asia reported that harassment and surveillance of minorities continues. Cultural and educational freedoms curtailed under past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov have still not been restored.

Digest

1. Iinternational Relations
a. Turkmenistan to Cooperate with NATO on Bases: Eurasian Transition Group
b. “No Fundamental Improvement in Human Rights” in Turkmenistan: Amnesty International
c. U.S. Energy Envoys Examine Energy Cooperation in Turkmenistan
d. OSCE to Cooperate with Turkmenistan on Security, Democracy

2. Domestic Developments
a. Ethnic Minorities Still Face Harassment, Surveillance: NBCentral Asia b. Imprisoned Civic Activist in Poor Health in Turkmen Jail Cell: Amnesty International
c. Lines for Dollars – and Bread – in Turkmenistan
d. Steep Hike in Public Transport, Air Fares in Turkmenistan

3. Economic News
a. Turkmen Leader Fails to Meet with Gazprom Head in Ashgabat
b. Turkmenistan Could Boost Oil Exports to 14 Million Tons by 2015, 80 Million by 2030
c. Ashgabat Hosts International Textile Exhibition