The OSI Turkmenistan News Brief features a digest of the week's news from a spectrum of sources, with an analysis of recent developments. It is distributed free of charge every Friday in English and Russian. Subscribe or unsubscribe to the Turkmenistan News Brief using the email entry box located on the left of this page.

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Analysis

At the conclusions of talks in Ashgabat April 10, the European Union secured its first clear commitment from Turkmenistan to obtain 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas directly, without transit through Russia. It was not yet clear whether the gas would be delivered via a new pipeline or in liquefied form on ships, but the pledge renewed hopes that Turkmenistan would take part in the Nabucco pipeline project.

The Russian press initially reported that Turkmenistan would supply gas for Nabucco, but President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was evidently more circumspect. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Walder said that her talks with the Turkmen president revealed that he was "open to supply also to Europe" but that it would depend on market prices, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner also appeared optimistic after his meeting with President Berdymukhamedov, but had no more specifics on the route the gas would take.

The official Turkmen government website indicates only that in talks with the EU, a memorandum of energy cooperation was signed and that European partners were invited "to participate in large national projects.”

Before any pipelines are built as an alternative to the Russian-controlled routes for Central Asian gas, the Caspian littoral states must agree on their long-disputed sea borders. The five states convened this week in Teheran to prepare for an as-yet-unscheduled Caspian Sea summit in Azerbaijan.

Concern remains whether Turkmenistan can produce enough gas to meet the demand of its new customers. At a cabinet meeting this week, President Berdymukhamedov indicated that there had been no increase in fuel production in the first quarter, despite plans to boost levels to 81.5 bcm. Turkmen officials said the country was maintaining the previous year's output and that no reduction would occur in 2008.

While the pledge of more gas from Turkmenistan may have been heartening to European policymakers, there were still many details on financing and export routes to nail down. Moreover, no real progress was seen on any of the benchmarks for human rights progress set by the European Parliament last year for the EU to proceed with a trade agreement with Turkmenistan. Rather than continuing any kind of strict linkage between trade and human rights, the EU opted to move ahead with commercial relations while promoting dialogue projects such as the establishment of European Houses and efforts to advise on legislative reform. While the ministers were meeting, another case came to light of a civic activist who was arrested in February, allegedly for his criticism of the authorities.

One bright spot was the announcement that pensions and student stipends would increase some 67 percent, although the average monthly wage continues to be only $140 US. It is not certain how more vulnerable members of the population will fare even given the higher social welfare payments, as the coming shift to a single, market-based exchange rate for the US dollar could wipe out some savings.

The president continued his ruthless campaign to extract better performance out of government managers through the threat of public reprimand or firing; this week he appointed his eighth deputy prime minister to take charge of financial issues, sacking the head of the Central Bank, the deputy prime minister in charge of communications and construction, and the communications minister. Plans for a dazzling new $137 million TV tower with a giant three-dimensional glowing star seemed to hark back to the era of the past dictator.

Digest

1. International Relations
a. Turkmenistan Makes 10 bcm Gas Offer to EU
b. Questions Raised About Ashgabat's Commitment to Nabucco
c. Caspian Littoral States Meeting in Teheran
d. Turkmen Specialists To Travel to Pakistan for Energy Talks
e. French Foreign Minister Meets with Turkmen President

2. Domestic Developments
a. President Appoints New Deputy Premier for Finance; Replaces Central Bank Head
b. President Dismisses Deputy Minister for Construction, Slams TV, Foreign Builders
c. Civic Activist Jailed in Turkmenistan, Lacks Medical Treatment

3. Economic News
a. Student Stipends, Pensions Increase in Turkmenistan
b. President Announces Single Dollar Exchange Rate to Start in 2009
c. Turkmenistan to Build 137-Million Euro TV Tower
d. No Boost in Gas Production in Turkmenistan