The Political Future and War Against Terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Afghanistan and Pakistan have played key roles in the events following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. Since the U.S.-led ouster of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the subsequent installation of interim President Hamid Karzai in June 2002, progress has been made toward an open, democratically elected government, especially in the wake of the ratification of a new constitution at a loya jirga (a conference of tribal leaders) in January 2004. General elections are scheduled for June 2004, but an increasing number of observers favor postponing them due to lingering security and logistical problems that have prevented a majority of eligible voters from registering to vote or even accessing basic information about the elections.

The situation is equally tense and complicated in neighboring Pakistan. Although President Pervez Musharraf seized power in a coup and has extended his tenure through undemocratically dubious measures, the U.S. government has offered muted criticism at best because it considers him a key ally in the fight against terrorism. At the same time, Musharraf’s hold on power is tenuous: he narrowly escaped two recent assassination attempts and much of the country’s border region with Afghanistan is lawless land controlled by remnants of the Taliban (including Osama bin Laden, most analysts believe). Pakistan has also been roiled by a scandal involving its top nuclear scientist, who was accused of selling nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran, and North Korea—yet was pardoned by Musharraf.

In this OSI forum, journalist Ahmed Rashid, a native of Pakistan who has traveled extensively in both countries and elsewhere in Central Asia, discussed the complex, changing political relationships between the United States and these two key nations in the ongoing U.S. antiterrorism efforts. He also outlined key issues, both geopolitical and local, that he believes should play a role in determining whether the Afghanistan elections proceed as scheduled given the region’s instability. Rashid is the author of two recent bestselling books, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia and Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia.

Read a summary of the forum.

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